They commissioned a study, a cost-benefit analysis
分析吸烟为捷克的成本与效益
of smoking in the Czech Republic, and what their cost-benefit
分析发现，如果允许公民吸烟，政府将收益。
analysis found was the government gains by having Czech citizens smoke.
他们怎么获益？
Now, how do they gain?
虽然这对捷克的公共财政有负面的影响
It's true that there are negative effects to the public finance
因为吸烟者增多，患病人随之增多
of the Czech government because there are increased health care
对医疗问题的投入也要增多
costs for people who develop smoking-related diseases.
另一方面，也有积极影响
On the other hand, there were positive effects
这些积极的作用累积在账本的另一边
and those were added up on the other side of the ledger.
这些积极作用，主要包括，
The positive effects included, for the most part,
从销售卷烟产品中收取的各种税收
various tax revenues that the government derives from the sale
而且还包括
of cigarette products, but it also included
人们因病早死节省下来的医疗储蓄
health care savings to the government when people die early,
以及养老金储蓄（他们过早地死去，你就不用支付养老金）
pension savings -- you don't have to pay pensions for as long -
同时，节省了老人住房的费用。
and also, savings in housing costs for the elderly.
而当成本和收益都加起来，
And when all of the costs and benefits were added up,
Philip Morris公司的研究发现，捷克政府的公共财政
the Philip Morris study found that there is a net public finance gain
将有1.47亿美元的净增益
in the Czech Republic of $147,000,000,
如果考虑到在住房、医疗、养老上的节省
and given the savings in housing, in health care, and pension costs,
对于那些因吸烟而早死的，政府能在他们每个人身上
the government enjoys savings of over $1,200 for each person
节省超过1,200元
who dies prematurely due to smoking.
成本效益分析。
Cost-benefit analysis.
现在，你们谁是支持功利主义的
Now, those among you who are defenders of utilitarianism
你可以认为这是一种不公平的测试。
may think that this is an unfair test.
报刊新闻攻击Philip Morris
Philip Morris was pilloried in the press
他们为这一无情的数字而道歉。
and they issued an apology for this heartless calculation.
你可能会说，功利主义缺少了一些东西
You may say that what's missing here is something that the utilitarian
也就是人的价值
can easily incorporate, namely the value to the person
以及这些死于肺癌的人所在的家庭。
and to the families of those who die from lung cancer.
如果把人的生命价值也考虑进去会怎样？
What about the value of life?
一些成本效益分析纳入了对生命价值的考量。
Some cost-benefit analyses incorporate a measure for the value of life.
其中一起是有名的Ford Pinto案件。
One of the most famous of these involved the Ford Pinto case.
你们之中有没有人读过这个案件？
Did any of you read about that?
这是早在20世纪70年代。
This was back in the 1970s.
你还记得Ford Pinto是什么？
Do you remember what the Ford Pinto was,
是一种的车吗？有没有人知道
a kind of car? Anybody?
这是一种小型车，超小的车，很受欢迎
It was a small car, subcompact car, very popular,
但它也有问题，问题出在它的油箱
but it had one problem, which is the fuel tank
因为油箱设在汽车的背部，与后方碰撞，
was at the back of the car and in rear collisions,
油箱爆炸，炸死了一些人
the fuel tank exploded and some people were killed
不少人严重受伤。
and some severely injured.
这些受害者把福特告到法院。
Victims of these injuries took Ford to court to sue.
而到了法庭上，结果是
And in the court case, it turned out that Ford
福特早就知道油箱有问题
had long since known about the vulnerable fuel tank
并且已做了成本效益分析，以确定是否应该
and had done a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether it would be
要把它设在一个特殊的挡板里
worth it to put in a special shield that would
保护油箱，来防止爆炸。
protect the fuel tank and prevent it from exploding.
他们做了成本效益分析。
They did a cost-benefit analysis.
计算每增加一个零件的成本
The cost per part to increase the safety of the Pinto,
他们算出来，每个零件要11.00美金。
they calculated at $11.00 per part.
在法庭上，福特呈上了成本效益分析
And here's -- this was the cost-benefit analysis that emerged in the trial.
12.5万辆轿车和卡车，每辆车多花11美元
Eleven dollars per part at 12.5 million cars and trucks
加起来一共要1.37亿美元的成本，来使其更安全。
came to a total cost of $137 million to improve the safety.
不过，他们还计算了，用这笔钱来
But then they calculated the benefits of spending all this money
做出一辆更安全的汽车，计算得出会有少死180人
on a safer car and they counted 180 deaths
如果每个死者分到20万元
and they assigned a dollar value, $200,000 per death,
180个死者，每人6万，然后维修的费用，
180 injuries, $67,000, and then the costs to repair,
更换2000辆车的费用，
the replacement cost for 2,000 vehicles,
这些无安全装置的车将被销毁，每辆700元。
it would be destroyed without the safety device $700 per vehicle.
因此，收益变成只有四千九百五十万
So the benefits turned out to be only $49.5 million
所以他们没有安装该设备。
and so they didn't install the device.
不用说，当福特的这个备忘录
Needless to say, when this memo of the
在开庭审理时呈上时，
Ford Motor Company's cost-benefit analysis came out in the trial,
让陪审团感到震惊，这些陪审员都获得了巨额的补偿金。
it appalled the jurors, who awarded a huge settlement.
这是功利主义的一个反面例子吗？
Is this a counterexample to the utilitarian idea of calculating?
因为福特公司在计算的时候把生命价值也包括在内。
Because Ford included a measure of the value of life.
现在，谁来为这个成本效益分析作辩护？
Now, who here wants to defend cost-benefit analysis
这是一个明显的反例
from this apparent counterexample?
谁要为其辩解？
Who has a defense?
或者，你是否认为这完全违背了
Or do you think this completely destroys the whole
整个功利主义的计算（原则）？
utilitarian calculus? Yes?
嗯，我想，他们又一次犯了同样的错误
Well, I think that once again, they've made the same mistake
跟以前的情况一样，他们为每条性命赋予了
the previous case did, that they assigned a dollar value
一美元的价值单位
to human life, and once again,
他们再次忽略了死伤者的家庭
they failed to take account things like suffering
所遭受的痛苦。
and emotional losses by the families.
我的意思是，他们不仅失去了家庭的收入来源，而且还失去了亲人
I mean, families lost earnings but they also lost a loved one
这些不是20万美元能衡量。
and that is more valued than $200,000.
对 - 等一下。你说得不错。你叫什么名字？
Right and -- wait, wait, wait, that's good. What's your name?
Julie Roteau
Julie Roteau .
Julie，如果20万美元是一个偏小的数字
So if $200,000, Julie, is too low a figure
因为它没有考虑到失去亲人的损失
because it doesn't include the loss of a loved one
以及这些年死去的生命
and the loss of those years of life, what would be -
你认为，多少才算是一个比较准确的数值？
what do you think would be a more accurate number?
我不认为我可以给一个明确的数字。我认为这种分析
I don't believe I could give a number. I think that this sort of analysis
不能应用于与生命有关的问题。
shouldn't be applied to issues of human life.
我认为不能用金钱来（解决）。
I think it can't be used monetarily.
因此，Julie说，他们不只是给的数值太小
So they didn't just put too low a number, Julie says.
而是，用数字来计算本身就是错的。
They were wrong to try to put any number at all.
好吧，让我们听听其他人
All right, let's hear someone who -
你还要考虑到通货膨胀。
You have to adjust for inflation.
你还要考虑到通货膨胀。
You have to adjust for inflation.
好的，很好。
All right, fair enough.
那么，现在这个数目应该是？
So what would the number be now?
这是35年前。
This was 35 years ago.
200万美元。
Two million dollars.
200万美元？你觉得要200万美元？
Two million dollars? You would put two million?
你叫什么名字？
And what's your name?
Voytek
Voytek
Voytek说，我们把通胀考虑进来。
Voytek says we have to allow for inflation.
我们要更慷慨一点。
We should be more generous.
那么，你对这样思考关于正义的问题
Then would you be satisfied that this is the right way of
满意吗？
thinking about the question?
我想，不幸的是，现在
I guess, unfortunately, it is for -
需要给出一个数字，我不肯定
there needs to be a number put somewhere, like, I'm not sure
这个数字应该是多少，但我同意
what that number would be, but I do agree that
用数值来衡量生命也是有可能的。
there could possibly be a number put on the human life.
好的，在这里，Voytek不同意Julie的想法
All right, so Voytek says, and here, he disagrees with Julie.
Julie说，我们不能用数值来衡量生命
Julie says we can't put a number on human life
来做一个成本效益分析
for the purpose of a cost-benefit analysis.
Voytek说，我们不得不这么做，因为我们必须作出某种决定。
Voytek says we have to because we have to make decisions somehow.
其他人怎么想呢？
What do other people think about this?
有没有人准备为这个成本效益分析辩护的？
Is there anyone prepared to defend cost-benefit analysis
是不是数字越准确越好？是吗？请继续。
here as accurate as desirable? Yes? Go ahead.
我认为，如果福特和其他汽车公司
I think that if Ford and other car companies
没有使用成本效益分析，他们最终会歇业
didn't use cost-benefit analysis, they'd eventually go out of business
因为他们无法实现盈利
because they wouldn't be able to be profitable and millions of people
数百万人将无法开车上班，
wouldn't be able to use their cars to get to jobs,
赚钱养活孩子。
to put food on the table, to feed their children.
因此，我认为，如果不用成本效益分析，
So I think that if cost-benefit analysis isn't employed,
在这种情况下，会损害大部人的利益。
the greater good is sacrificed, in this case.
好的，让我补充一下。你叫什么名字？
All right, let me add. What's your name?
Raul。
Raul.
劳尔，最近有项研究，关于开车时
Raul, there was recently a study done about cell phone use by a driver
是否使用手机，并且引起一场争论
when people are driving a car, and there was a debate
争论是否应被禁止开车使用手机。
whether that should be banned.
是啊。
Yeah.
因开车使用手机而死去的人
And the figure was that some 2,000 people die as a result
每年约有2000人
of accidents each year using cell phones.
然而，哈佛的风险分析中心
And yet, the cost-benefit analysis which was done by the
做了成本效益分析，发现
Center for Risk Analysis at Harvard found that
如果你看一下允许使用手机所带来的效益
if you look at the benefits of the cell phone use
和因此而失去的性命，它们的价值差不多
and you put some value on the life, it comes out about the same
由于，允许人们使用手机能带来巨大的经济利益
because of the enormous economic benefit of enabling people
